On March 11, President Joe Biden announced on live TV the purchase of 100 million more one-shot vaccines, and that every adult in the U.S. would be eligible to receive a vaccination by May 1—this, as shots in arms were already increasing, and COVID-19 rates steadily declining. Coupled with the emerging springtime around the nation, it felt like a turning point in our dark age: that the unremitting blues of quarantine might soon be replaced by reunions with loved ones, recreational travel, and the familiar夏天的欢乐棒球游戏和后院烧烤。
Five days after that promising primetime address, eight people were shot dead in Atlanta-area spas. A few days later, 10 were killed in a grocery store shooting in Boulder, Colorado. The country was forced to face familiar, albeit perhaps temporarily forgotten, territory: two mass shootings within a week, for the first time since the pandemic lockdown began.
自上次大规模枪击事件发生以来，亚特兰大的袭击恰好是一年，它使用联邦调查局的指标定义为一次枪击事件，其中四人被杀。到目前为止，大流行的跨度尚未产生这样的事件，这是一个真正的异常（尽管在大流行开始之前，2020年已经有两个）。在那之前, in 2019, there were 10; in 2018, 12; and in 2017, 11. Now, the happy anticipation of emerging from lockdown could be tempered by a return of such horrific incidents. Public spaces spell more opportunity for gun violence in crowds, and that, combined with a record number of gun sales and persistent economic woes exacerbated by the pandemic, creates a ripe climate for these very specific acts of violence.
如果您考虑了大规模枪击的广泛使用的替代定义，其中四人被枪杀但不一定被杀死，那么在大流行期间确实确实在继续进行大规模枪击事件。Gun Violence Archive。实际上，2020年是record year对于枪杀和一般的凶杀案，至少有4,000次谋杀案than the number recorded in 2019. In total, about41,000人在2020年被枪支杀死。大部分流血事件发生在城市地区（凶杀率在全国各地猛增，including in major cities像纽约，芝加哥和洛杉矶一样），国内袭击，意外枪击事件和自杀（代表年度枪支死亡的三分之二）。
但是亚特兰大和博尔德的大规模枪击事件是罕见的，但现在看似常规的备受瞩目的活动，捕捉了媒体的24小时报道。他们仅考虑约1％在全部枪支死亡中，但对美国身份的残酷和独特性中有一些东西，使大规模枪击如此影响，以至于它们成为美国民族心理的一部分。
“America is the only high-income country where getting back to normal means that shootings in public places resume,” says Shannon Watts, founder of Moms Demand Action, one of the country’s most prominent gun reform advocacy groups. From systemic disparities to the prevalence of firearms, America is simply going back to a broken normality with its unresolved problems, including the gun violence epidemic. “We’re getting back to baseline,” Watts says.
在一个关于枪支暴力问题的政治上无所事事的时代，大规模枪击事件仍然是枪支法律变化的最大触发因素。哈佛商学院study showedthat mass shootings have a “greater impact on legislative activity” than other gun crime. The authors found that one mass shooting has an equal impact on introducing gun bills in statehouses as 125 individual gun homicides. But the changes are not necessarily in favor of gun control: Republican-controlled legislatures were more likely to loosen gun laws in response to new atrocities.
一种非常特殊的枪支暴力
无法确定最近的两次枪击是趋势的开始。罗格斯大学（Rutgers University）的临床心理学家兼公共卫生教授迈克尔·阿尼斯蒂斯（Michael Anestis）说：“我认为我们注定要激发大规模枪击事件。”他的枪支暴力研究中心。从本质上讲，大规模枪击事件更随机，因此比夏季往往达到顶峰的持续枪支暴力更难预测。但是，阿尼斯蒂斯说，大规模枪击的机会正在增加。
One of the risk factors is the surge in gun purchases, which reached an历史记录在2020年。FBI报告的背景调查这是可用于枪支销售的最佳指标，达到3,970万，比2019年增长40％，这是先前的记录。那个上升持续了2021年初。“You can’t have a mass shooting without ready access to firearms,” Anestis says. “Particularly those that can fire at a high rate, and have high-capacity magazines.”
从定义上讲，如果没有人的会众，您也无法进行大规模枪击事件。在一段时间内，关闭了学校，礼拜场所，购物中心，俱乐部和音乐厅，限制了聚会的机会，从而限制了大规模暴力的频率。随着COVID-19的平息，我们一直渴望的那些集会将开始重新出现。
Criminal justice professors詹姆斯·丹斯利和吉利安·彼得森研究这种非常特殊的枪支犯罪，运行暴力项目，一项整体研究，收集有关犯罪的动机，受害者和其他方面的数据，可追溯到1966年。Densley表示，该小组对大规模枪击事件的突破很乐观在大流行期间。这是因为最大的恐惧之一是“传染性效应”，射击者通过复制以前的大众射击游戏而受到刺激，如此类事件的历史群体所示。随着媒体焦点这些罪行，它们成为文化对话的一部分，就像自1999年哥伦拜恩高中枪击事件以来一样。由于这一臭名昭著的事件，大规模枪击事件一直持续发生。（这是媒体媒体现在故意选择不要将注意力集中在射击者上的原因的一部分。）
A thread that runs through the motivation for many mass shootings is economic or social angst. That has表现出来在学校射击者中，他们没有被包括在同伴团体中；对雇主或同事抱怨的枪手；以及为自己的经济困扰而替罪移民或少数民族的杀手。One study，犯罪学家亚当·兰克福德（Adam Lankford）提出，“美国例外主义”的独特压力构成了这种暴力的根源。兰克福德告诉新闻周刊。“Our culture has people reaching for the stars and slipping and falling probably more often.”
这些数据并不是任何方式来减轻这些射击者的可怕行为。然而，它指出了在美国最好的时刻深深嵌入美国社会中的系统性问题和差异。丹斯利说：“现实是：我们不是在大流行之前过着最好的自我。”“美国并不是每个人都感到包括在内的快乐，功能齐全的地方，每个人都在繁荣。回到正常状态真的只是意味着回到那里的所有坏东西，再也没有消失。”
A pause on life, and on an unresolved epidemic
大流行引起了经济焦虑，因为19日停业导致失业率激增，这可能是2020年前所未有的暴力行为。First-time buyerscontributed to the record number of gun sales since the onset of the pandemic, indicating newfound社交焦虑。Lockdown, with its close quarters, also may have amplified tensions and feelings of hopelessness. Finally being released from those constraints will be beneficial, but in order for the risk of violence to quell, Anestis says, it has to be accompanied by an improvement in those social determinants. Reopening will likely produce more economic opportunities, which will be a boon. He suggests policies such as raising the minimum wage can also help curb violence because they create more economic prospects.
As society reopens after an unprecedented time of hardship, Densley also recommends that people be more attuned to loved ones who are struggling, to ensure they get the resources they need, so that “they don’t feel that their only option is to lash out violently.” A priority on that front is children, who are returning to schools—the sites of some of the most horrendous mass shootings in memory—after a defining dark period in their early development. “We need to make sure that they get caught up on their math and English and social studies,” Densley says. “But at the same time, we also need to make sure, you know—how is everyone doing?”
可以说，枪支暴力发生在美国的最重要的机会是由枪支本身创造的，这个问题甚至在大流行对我们的生活施加刹车之前也几乎没有解决。瓦茨的小组，妈妈要求采取行动，为枪支改革立法而战；非营利组织在没有联邦行动的情况下，在州一级取得了小小的胜利，创造了红色标记法和枪支购买的关闭漏洞。她说：“这种枪支法律正在尽力而为。”“但是，我们都像最弱的枪支法律一样安全。”
Now, the focus is on convincing Republican senators to approve the两个账单这已经过去了：一项将背景调查扩展到私人销售，另一个将所谓的查尔斯顿漏洞关闭，这将延长一个人必须等待支票完成之前完成支票之前完成枪支之前的时间。如果那个“冷静”时期已经到位，那将阻止亚特兰大枪击案中的枪手走进枪支店，并在谋杀案的那天购买武器。
账单的阵线没有太多乐观的情绪 - 即使是消除fillibuster。拟议的法律也不会禁止亚特兰大和博尔德射击手使用的半自动武器，拜登的行动呼吁，但这在陷入僵局的参议院中似乎不可能。
虽然我们可能不会注定要大规模枪击事件，但我们从大流行中出来，在数十年的流行病中没有恢复政治行动。阿尼斯蒂斯（Anestissuggested before，但是鉴于持续的惯性，这是公平的。他说：“很难得出结论，即将跨越终点线。”“如果桑迪·霍克（Sandy Hook）不做，那会什么？”