President Joe Biden is calling for a more than 60% increase in spending to fight climate change in his first联邦预算, compared to the previous annual budget, with more than $36 billion in climate-related investments spread across nearly every agency of the government.
That includes more than $10 billion in nondefense spending on clean energy innovation, among other investments in research and development.
How much of this proposal Congress agrees to fundwill be important对于国家和世界降低排放的能力。拜登的清洁未来的愿景—with greenhouse gas emissions falling to net-zero by 2050—不可能without dramatically improved technology, and that requires investing in innovation.
Right now, for example, there are no technologies ready to be deployed on a global scale to eliminate emissions from many essential agricultural and industrial activities. Three examples are animal agriculture, cement production, and steel production, which together account for more than a quarter of all global emissions.
My research careerhas been devoted to innovation policy, and I served on the White House staff under President Barack Obama. I’ve seen how smart public policies and savvy federal investments can help accelerate the innovation process.
进步，但是打哈欠的差距
这re’s no question that the world is making progress on clean energy.Wind and solar power costs have fallen dramatically，使他们能够在许多地方取代煤炭和天然气，以提供更清洁的电力。电动汽车是成为主流也是如此。
But as promising as these technologies are, they will still leave the world far short of net-zero emissions, even if they continue to develop rapidly.
国际能源机构的成员包括世界上最大的经济体，开发了一个模型，以展示世界如何到2050年到达零排放while ensuring a basic standard of living for all people. The model incorporates more than 400 technologies and rates them by their current readiness level.
它发现，从现在到2050年之间的几乎一半的排放减少将来自仍处于原型阶段或仅仅证明的技术。另外40％的技术将来自最近进入市场的技术，并且不一定与常规资源达到了全部成本均衡。大多数其他能源和气候系统建模者得出相似的结论。
Innovation is particularly essential for thehard-to-decarbonize sectors。例如：
水泥这是世界上使用最广泛的材料，大约占全球排放量的8％。它通常是在窑炉中生产的，这些窑炉被天然气发射至非常高的温度。它还经历了释放二氧化碳的化学反应。新兴解决方案包括capturing the carbon在生产过程中，转移to low-carbon materials, and发明new processes altogether. But none of these options is ready yet to scale up to meet the challenge of dramatically reducing emissions at a reasonable cost.
Steel产生了7％的全球排放量，具有类似的挑战和解决方案，特别强调在生产过程中使用氢。例如，在瑞典Hybrit（氢突破性铁技术）示范厂将使用通过电解产生的氢，该氢将水分成氢和氧气以避免排放。不过，它仍然很昂贵。生产费用已估计比常规方法高20％至30％。
动物农业is the source of 12% or more of global emissions. Livestock and manure emit methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Fossil fuels and fertilizers are also used to grow feed crops, and forests may be destroyed to accommodate grazing. These challenges require a different set of solutions, which might include new practices formanaging soil,changing livestock feed， 和发明替代物的常规肉，以及减少肉类消耗。
航空—responsible for 2% of global emissions—requires high-powered engines to provide thrust over a short period of time. That energy demand is hard to meet with batteries compared to fuel combustion, especially for long-haul flights. While some entrepreneurs are pursuing电飞机, other possibilities for emissions-free flights could includemaking liquid fuels from biological sourcesor from hydrogen and captured carbon.
海上运输，目前有2％的排放，也可能会切换到可持续液体燃料or hydrogen-powered燃料电池to drive electric motors.端口操作依靠重型卡车和设备来运输货运，将需要类似的解决方案。
将所有这些放在一起
创新的论点不是反对部署已经有效的气候解决方案的论点。部署刺激了创新。这就是风能和太阳能变得更便宜的方式，以及为什么更多的电动汽车效仿，因为越来越多的电动汽车上路。
But证据表明，有针对性的政策将是必不可少的to accelerate innovation in sectors that now lack them.
Companies will rarely try to solve climate challenges with their own money because the payoff is too distant and uncertain. Government regulation and charging companies a fee if they emit greenhouse gases may help close part of the innovation gap, but it is not a substitute for public investments in innovation.
燃油税提供了类比。在欧洲，它们已经比美国高得多。结果，欧洲汽车经销商提供的汽车比美国同行提供了更小，更高效的汽车。但是直到最近，还没有欧洲汽车制造商提供电动汽车。它采取了重点政策，例如挪威的大型政府激励措施，以及初创公司特斯拉的创造力（由美国联邦和州政策的帮助），使电动汽车市场起飞。
事情在好转
Heeding the evidence, the Biden administration haspromisedto quadruple clean energy research in four years, and its infrastructure proposal includes numerous large-scale energy and climate technology demonstration projects.
在最近的全球领导人关于气候变化的峰会，拜登还宣布了任务创新, a global initiative set up in parallel with the Paris climate agreement to spark public and private investment.
尽管气候政策在美国高度两极分化，但创新收到广泛的支持。Large majorities from both political parties endorse it in public opinion polls. So do organizations ranging fromGreen New Deal advocatesto the tax- and regulation-averseU.S. Chamber of Commerce。
正如几十年来可再生能源开发的故事所表明的那样，创新可能是一个缓慢而复杂的过程。下雪了到国会通过预算将更快地推动气候创新。这increasing impact of rising temperaturesshows there is no time to waste.
大卫·哈特（David M. Hart）is a professor of public policy atGeorge Mason University
本文从对话在创意共享许可下。阅读original article。
