这是下一个大流行可能出现的地方

大约一年前，新的冠状病毒可能从野生动物跳到中国武汉的第一个感染人类，然后蔓延到整个城市，然后迅速跳到世界其他地区。如果2020年似乎是一种异常现象，那不是：科学家说，将来的某个时刻将跟随另一个大流行。一个新研究试图确定它可能出现的地方。

“本质上，这项工作正试图确定现代全球化世界中最大的差距，在这些世界中，病原体可能最有可能滑入并导致广泛的全球传播，”这项新研究的主要作者，一名新研究的主要作者迈克尔·沃尔什（Michael Walsh）说。the University of Sydney’s School of Public Health.

三个因素是关键。在最多的地区野生动植物栖息地正在消失，对野生动物的压力更大，使疾病更容易传播，并在人类和动物之间接触更多。近几十年来，包括艾滋病毒，第一批SARS和埃博拉病毒在内的所有最严重的传染病都是“人畜共患病”，这意味着它们从动物中传播出来。（在某些情况下，病毒首先传播到牲畜，然后传播到人类。）较差的卫生系统是第二个危险因素。最有可能成为大流行的城市也通过机场在全球范围内良好联系。

沃尔什说：“我们的目标是确定那些最大野生动植物与最多人共享空间的地区。”“在这些空间中，人类同时对野生动植物物种及其环境施加了高度的压力，并由于与野生动植物的接触更大而增加了自己的[人]暴露于新病原体。结果是这些新病原体“溢出”到人类人群中的风险增加。

一个最近的报告从政府间科学政策平台上的生物多样性和生态系统服务服务警告说，Covid-19的出现“完全受人类活动的驱动”，并且在哺乳动物和鸟类中还有成千上万种其他其他病毒，也可能会感染人类，这些病毒也可能感染人类action isn’t taken to protect nature and limit the possibility of them jumping species. Some could be far more deadly than SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Without action, pandemics in the future could begin to happen more often—already, new infectious diseases are emerging in humans approximately every八个月。

The new study notes that areas in Africa and parts of Asia are most at risk, both because of contact between people and animals and because of the other factors: While it’s possible that a pandemic could emerge in a location with good health infrastructure, it’s more likely to happen in areas where healthcare is underfunded. “If a new spillover leads to onward human-to-human transmission, then this is more likely to go undetected in areas without good access to healthcare for all and without robust disease surveillance systems in place than in areas where these are present,” says Walsh. Cities like Mumbai, India, and Chengdu, China, are at the highest risk because they’re also major travel hubs, so once a virus emerges in humans, it could quickly spread to other parts of the globe if it’s not detected in time.

政府可以通过保护栖息地，改善人类的健康基础设施和牲畜的兽医护理，以及开发更好的疾病监测系统，以系统地监测病原体（包括，例如，如，如，如，例如，例如，例如，，政府可以利用这项研究来填补最有风险的城市空白。在机场进行的最后防御，疾病监测）。Societies also “need to think about ways to minimize contact, ways to ‘break the interface’ in other words, between humans and wildlife as much as possible, which means working with forest departments and other land management agencies to think about ways to reduce the sharing of space,” Walsh says.