很抱歉成为坏消息的承载者，但是为您的朋友和家人购买假期礼物可能已经太晚了。
As you may have heard, the global supply chain is broken: Some Asian factories are百叶窗because of COVID-19, container ships arestuck在美国港口，库存不会离开仓库，因为有一个国家卡车司机短缺。范德比尔特大学运输与运营弹性中心主任克雷格·菲利普（Craig Philip）说：“这真是一团糟。”“在短期内，一些公司在圣诞节假期里没有太多卖出。”
What does that mean for you? Supply chain experts say that end-of-year shopping will look quite different than in years past because brands and retailers may not get their holiday merchandise by December. That doesn’t mean store shelves across the country will be empty; it’s just that you may not be able to find the exact products you’re looking for. “There’s going to be a lot less inventory and a lot less choice for the consumer,” says Edward Hertzman, founder ofSourcing Journal。
以下是专家认为今年将短暂供应的产品，以及一些关于礼物的想法。
The toy of the year
Historically, toy brands and retailers have bet that a particular toy will be exceptionally popular each Christmas. Think of Game Boys in 1989 or Tickle Me Elmo in 1996. (Last year, no joke, brands were hypingpooping flamingos and dogs。今年，受欢迎的玩具将包括与最近节目有关的产品拉亚和最后一条龙和曼达洛人，但是零售商可能没有像计划的那样库存，或者他们的货物可能会推迟。
“People won’t be able to get the hot toy that everybody wants,” Philip says. “There is likely to be panic buying too, which will eat into whatever supply is available in stores.” He believes some retailers will get creative and promote toys they already happen to have in stock.
Covid-19 tests
Given that we’re still in the midst of a pandemic, at-home COVID-19 tests will be useful as we plan holiday gatherings. But many rapid tests are manufactured overseas, so they’re caught up in the same supply chain holdups, resulting inshortages around the country。最重要的是，食品和药物管理局已批准较少的快速测试比其他国家 /地区限制了即使没有供应链问题的可用测试数量。
Major test manufacturers like Abbott and Quidel are building facilities in the U.S. to boost production, and the White House has promised to double the rapid tests available over the接下来的两个月, but it may still be hard to get a test in time for the holiday season, particularly as demand surges.
New electronics
For more than a year, there’s been aglobal shortage in computer chips从智能手机到汽车，这是数百万产品。当前的供应链持有只是加剧了延迟。消费电子品牌倾向于定期推出新型号，使旧型号看起来过时或过时：例如，今年，苹果发布了iPhone 13Google放下了像素6。但是任何计划在这个假期购买新设备的人都可能挣扎。几乎不可能得到PS5，苹果已经警告说iPhone salescould be affected by the shortages.
普华永道供应链专家乔纳森·克莱泽尔（Jonathan Kletzel）说：“被销售为2021型号的产品可能直到2022年才出现。”“假期后可能会有过多的库存。”换句话说，直到新年购买其中一些产品可能值得等待。
The “it” bag
When it comes to fashion, this isn’t the year to be picky. If you wanted to buy one of the “it” bags of 2021—like普拉达的克莱奥包，例如 - 很难让您掌握一个。很难买Louis Vuitton bagsfor months, and this is likely to persist into the holidays.
根据赫兹曼的说法，整个时装行业都是如此。从羊绒毛衣到冬衣，许多倾向于有才华的产品都被困在集装箱船上。将有库存可用，但是您可能无法获得所需的样式，颜色或品牌。
So what should you do?
Even with all the potential shortages, you don’t need to panic. There are ways to work around these constraints. If you can, shop early, says Jon Gold, supply chain expert at the National Retail Federation. He also says that there are some benefits to shopping in store, where you can see what’s available and buy it immediately, as opposed to buying online, where there may be shipping delays getting products from the warehouse to your home. That said, he stresses that we’re still in the midst of a public health crisis, so it’s worth being cautious.
“Shop early, but shop safe,” he says. “And be aware of the mask mandates in your area.”
This might also be the year to consider buying secondhand goods as gifts, particularly clothes and handbags. Rebag, for instance, has a stock of lightly used Prada and Louis Vuitton bags that aren’t currently available from these brands. And finally, it might be time to get over the taboo of giving a gift card. If you can’t get friends or family what they want right away, let them buy the product themselves in the new year, when stock comes in. And this ensures they’ll buy things they really want, reducing the chance ofenvironmentally terrible returns。
Hertzman concludes: “I think it’s going to be the year of the gift card.”